[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":-1},["ShallowReactive",2],{"9_t0YFtO844PW3-iCfPxRTbw8yv0-2zzu2bChZFenjo":3,"btz8hO-MXSFLpybqvfjYVBre4OvrEJO1wFySe3Zmv-s":49,"Pcp1ooJVPHeXEcTtnO2VSeR9ek7j04hD5sIpQPa_4F8":75,"yMrACZ27CjSQ_rg_VZdtcGiTzvMfKsNrH-FL7mvXix4":186,"_apollo:default":228},{"menu":4},{"__typename":5,"id":6,"name":7,"items":8},"Menu","nuxt-main-menu","Nuxt Hauptmenü",[9,24,29,34,39,44],{"__typename":10,"id":11,"title":12,"description":13,"url":14,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":22},"MenuItem","9ffc5019-cbd8-4b2e-8eb7-9feae486d4a1","Blog",null,"/know-how",{"__typename":16,"id":17,"name":18,"direction":19},"Language","de","German","ltr",true,false,{"__typename":23,"class":13},"MenuItemAttributes",{"__typename":10,"id":25,"title":26,"description":13,"url":27,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":28},"1c7a5430-8a42-4b24-9544-252adabc2f4c","Projekte","/projekte",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":30,"title":31,"description":13,"url":32,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":33},"9c4feedc-79e4-4fbf-b68c-065f33ebfe4c","Sparring","/workshop-ux-sparring-fuer-unternehmen",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":35,"title":36,"description":13,"url":37,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":38},"3b77a27b-272a-489f-843e-53e23ed07741","Trainings","/liechtenecker-ux-academy",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":40,"title":41,"description":13,"url":42,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":43},"ce0bb82b-e1ee-4036-be95-f693a62e9f4a","Über uns","/about",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":45,"title":46,"description":13,"url":47,"langcode":15,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":48},"04a19381-81a9-4694-8653-182d8855d2b5","Kontakt","/kontakt",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"menu":50},{"__typename":5,"id":51,"name":52,"items":53},"footer","Fußzeile",[54,60,65,70],{"__typename":10,"id":55,"title":56,"description":13,"url":57,"langcode":58,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":59},"e2873307-b50a-4aab-b6b2-1950fd99c72e","Impressum","/impressum",{"__typename":16,"id":17,"name":18,"direction":19},{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":61,"title":62,"description":13,"url":63,"langcode":58,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":64},"2cd9b7c9-142a-4ea3-b898-a0952c54a195","Datenschutz","/datenschutz",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":66,"title":67,"description":13,"url":68,"langcode":58,"internal":20,"expanded":21,"attributes":69},"a5effba3-5a8c-4125-8d78-0cdba09824db","AGB","/agb",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"__typename":10,"id":71,"title":72,"description":13,"url":73,"langcode":58,"internal":21,"expanded":21,"attributes":74},"114bf071-bdbb-44cf-85c1-69e9d9e0777d","Newsletter","https://liechtenecker.at/newsletter-subscribe",{"__typename":23,"class":13},{"route":76},{"__typename":77,"entity":78},"RouteInternal",{"__typename":79,"id":80,"title":81,"changed":82,"created":88,"langcode":91,"path":92,"promote":21,"status":20,"sticky":21,"metatag":93,"postCategory":113,"postContentElements":13,"evergreen":13,"tags":138,"postWpBody":156,"wpHeaderImage":13,"wpHeaderImageOld":159,"wpHeaderImageOldSmall":171,"wpOgImage":13,"wpPromotedTeaserImage":13,"wpShareDescription":13,"wpShareTitle":13,"wpTeaserText":13,"wpYoastHead":180,"author":181},"NodeWpPost","832","Technologische Prophezeiungen und ihre Makel",{"__typename":83,"timestamp":84,"timezone":85,"offset":86,"time":87},"DateTime",1554794810,"UTC","+00:00","2019-04-09T07:26:50+00:00",{"__typename":83,"timestamp":89,"timezone":85,"offset":86,"time":90},1515769231,"2018-01-12T15:00:31+00:00",{"__typename":16,"id":17,"name":18,"direction":19},"/blog/technologische-prophezeiungen-und-ihre-makel",[94,101,108],{"__typename":95,"tag":96,"attributes":97},"MetaTagValue","meta",{"__typename":98,"name":99,"content":100},"MetaTagValueAttributes","title","Technologische Prophezeiungen und ihre Makel | Liechtenecker UX Design Studio",{"__typename":102,"tag":103,"attributes":104},"MetaTagLink","link",{"__typename":105,"href":106,"hreflang":13,"rel":107,"media":13,"sizes":13,"type":13},"MetaTagLinkAttributes","http://liechtenecker-cms.liechtenecker-cms.svc.cluster.local/blog/technologische-prophezeiungen-und-ihre-makel","canonical",{"__typename":109,"tag":96,"attributes":110},"MetaTagProperty",{"__typename":111,"property":112,"content":81},"MetaTagPropertyAttributes","og:title",{"__typename":114,"id":115,"name":116,"path":117,"status":20,"weight":118,"description":119,"langcode":123,"changed":124,"metatag":127},"TermCategories","9","Zukunft","/kategorie/zukunft",0,{"__typename":120,"processed":121,"format":122},"Text","Auseinandersetzung mit Zukunft, Speculative Design, Überlegungen und Diskussionen zur Entwicklung bestimmter Technologien oder Lebensbereiche. ","wp_html",{"__typename":16,"id":17,"name":18,"direction":19},{"__typename":83,"timestamp":125,"timezone":85,"offset":86,"time":126},1713772777,"2024-04-22T07:59:37+00:00",[128,131,135],{"__typename":95,"tag":96,"attributes":129},{"__typename":98,"name":99,"content":130},"Zukunft | Liechtenecker UX Design Studio",{"__typename":95,"tag":96,"attributes":132},{"__typename":98,"name":133,"content":134},"description","Auseinandersetzung mit Zukunft, Speculative Design, Überlegungen und Diskussionen zur Entwicklung bestimmter Technologien oder Lebensbereiche.",{"__typename":102,"tag":103,"attributes":136},{"__typename":105,"href":137,"hreflang":13,"rel":107,"media":13,"sizes":13,"type":13},"http://liechtenecker-cms.liechtenecker-cms.svc.cluster.local/kategorie/zukunft",[139,144,148,152],{"__typename":140,"id":141,"name":142,"path":143,"weight":118},"TermTags","640","innovation","/tag/innovation",{"__typename":140,"id":145,"name":146,"path":147,"weight":118},"1023","Prophezeiungen","/tag/prophezeiungen",{"__typename":140,"id":149,"name":150,"path":151,"weight":118},"1299","technologie","/tag/technologie",{"__typename":140,"id":153,"name":154,"path":155,"weight":118},"1616","zukunft","/tag/zukunft",{"__typename":157,"processed":158,"format":122,"summary":13},"TextSummary","\u003Cdiv class=\"grid-wrapper\">\n    \u003Cdiv class=\"row\">\n        \u003Cdiv class=\"default-left col-xsmall-12 col-medium-6 col-medium-offset-2 col-large-6 col-large-offset-3 \">\n            \n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ich erzähle euch dauernd etwas über \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"/unser-wundersames-begehren-nach-dystopien-und-utopien/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Zukunftsvisionen\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, jedoch soll es in diesem Artikel um Zukunftsvorhersagen gehen. Es ist gar nicht so leicht diese zu äußern. Denn, wie kann man sich schon sicher sein, was wirklich in der Zukunft passieren wird? Bei Zukunftsvisionen hat man es doch etwas einfacher, da man einfach seine Meinung, über verschiedenste Zukunfts-Szenarien die möglich wären, äußern kann. Aber will man etwas prophezeien, dann sollte man sich schon sicher sein, dass es auch so geschehen wird. Man will ja nicht am Ende dumm dastehen. Wer erinnert sich jedoch noch daran, was jemand vor fünf bis zehn Jahren gesagt hat? Wohl kaum jemand, zumindest hoffen das die Meisten, die mit ihren Vorhersagen falsch gelegen haben 😉 Ein Zeitfenster, das über die nächsten 5-10 Jahre aufgespannt wird, fühlt sich unmittelbar und greifbar an, ist aber weit genug entfernt, um Fehleinschätzungen wieder rechtzeitig vergessen zu lassen. Immer wieder lese ich darüber was in den nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahren passieren wird. Meistens hab ich jedoch das Gefühl, dass diese zeitlichen Angaben einfach verwendet werden um eben das vorhin beschriebene Phänomen zu nutzen, sich weder sofort falsifizierbar zu machen, noch in einer bedeutungslos fernen Zukunftsschwelgerei zu verenden. Der Weg in Richung der Prophezeiungen mag eingeschlagen sein, die Dauer bis zu deren Erfüllung aber oftmals einfach noch nicht einzuschätzen. Da ist man vorerst mit der Einschätzung „in fünf bis zehn Jahren“ zumindest in guter Gesellschaft 😉\u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp> \u003C/p>\n\u003Cblockquote>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cstrong>In naher/ferner Zukunft wird alles/nichts geschehen.\u003C/strong>\u003C/p>\n\u003C/blockquote>\n\u003Ch2>Die glorreichen nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahre\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Auch \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2017/09/in_technology_everything_is_always_five_to_10_years_away.html?wpsrc=sh_all_dt_fb_top\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Slate\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> hat bemerkt, dass Prognosen sehr gerne für die nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahre ausgestellt werden und hat dazu eine Liste an Zitaten erstellt. Hier ein paar meiner Lieblings-Aussagen: \u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cul>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“\u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://books.google.at/books?id=Myk-ZOa41qUC&pg=PA16&lpg=PA16&dq=In+the+rush+to+put+personal+computers+in+the+hands+of+white-collar+workers,+it+is+sometimes+easy+to+forget+that+there+may+not+be+any+more+space+in+the+office+to+install+new+technol&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=In%20the%20rush%20to%20put%20personal%20computers%20in%20the%20hands%20of%20white-collar%20workers%2C%20it%20is%20sometimes%20easy%20to%20forget%20that%20there%20may%20not%20be%20any%20more%20space%20in%20the%20office%20to%20install%20new%20technol&f=false\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Five to 10 years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> from now, there are going to be people who will work eight hours or more a day at a keyboard,” Ottenjan said. “They will need to be able to adjust the tabletop, arrange the seating, remove the glare from the screen.” \u003Cem>Gary Ottenjan, April 2, 1990, Computer World\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Skorman says that in the next \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.wired.com/1997/11/hollywood-3/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five to ten years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> technology will allow film fans to download movies instantly, directly into their TV or PC screens. And you can bet Reel.com will be one of the first video-on-demand outlets at the starting gate.” \u003Cem>Stuart Skorman, Nov. 1, 1997 – Wired\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“In the next \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2010-06-15-toledo15_CV_N.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five to 10 years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, Klear predicts, solar and wind power will become ‘standard fare for a new home.’ ” \u003Cem>Dan Klear, July 14, 2010 –\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003Cem> \u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">USA Today\u003C/span>\u003C/em>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Of course, Zuckerberg doesn’t expect us to start going on virtual reality vacations with our Facebook friends overnight. He said in the analyst call that it could take \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.technologyreview.com/s/525861/facebook-buys-oculus-so-you-can-take-a-virtual-vacation/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five to ten years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> before virtual reality is commonplace.” \u003Cem>Mark Zuckerberg, March 25, 2014 – MIT Technology Review\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“We are confident that within \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/app-delivers-shocks-to-fight-motion-sickness/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five to 10 years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> people will be able to walk into the chemist and buy an anti-seasickness device. It may be something like a machine that is used for back pain. We hope it might even integrate with a mobile phone.” \u003Cem>Qadeer Arshad, Sept. 7, 2015 – Digital Trends\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Eventually the engineers want to move RoboBees out of the lab environment into the real world, but it could take another \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/the-bees-of-the-future-that-can-pollinate-and-save-disaster-victims/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">five to 10 years\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> before they are able to fly and swarm on their own.” \u003Cem>Harvard Microrobotics Laboratory, June 27, 2016, on robots widely useable for pollination or search and rescue operations – World Economic Forum\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003Cli>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">“Uber believes that investing in flying cars is essential to protecting its business, and envisions full-scale operations of a flying car network launching in \u003C/span>\u003Cstrong>\u003Ca href=\"http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/25/technology/uber-flying-car/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">2023\u003C/a>\u003C/strong>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.” \u003Cem>Uber, April 25, 2017– CNN\u003C/em>\u003C/span>\u003C/li>\n\u003C/ul>\n\u003Ch2>IBM 5 in 5 vor fünf Jahren\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Auch IBM bedient sich dieses Zukunft-Zeitraumes in ihren \u003C/span>\u003Ci>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">5 in 5\u003C/span>\u003C/i>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Vorhersagen. Jedes Jahr beschreiben sie fünf Innovationen, die in den nächsten fünf Jahren unser Leben verändern werden. \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.fastcompany.com/3023514/do-you-know-what-life-will-be-like-in-5-years-ibms-top-scientist-does\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Vor fünf Jahren\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> drehte sich alles um das Thema Big Data (Massendaten). IBM hat vorhergesagt, dass bis heuer mit Hilfe von Big Data unser Stadtleben vereinfacht wird, der Klassenraum individuell auf die Bedürfnisse jedes Schülers eingehen kann, lokale Geschäfte wieder stärker frequentiert werden als Onlineshops, unsere Daten im Internet von einem digitalen Wächter geschützt werden und Ärzte uns alltäglich mit Hilfe von DNA-Analysen diagnostizieren. Mit Big Data sollte die Zukunft vorausberechnet werden und basierend darauf auch verändert werden können. In ihrer Zukunftsvorhersage sahen sie also weitere statistisch hergeleitete Zukunftsvorhersagen.\u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Und was davon ist nun wirklich eingetroffen? Unser Stadtleben hat sich definitiv verändert mit dem Trend zur Smart City – der schon 2013 sehr groß war. Je nachdem in welcher Stadt man wohnt, kann man das auch miterleben. Die Verwendung von DNA-Analysen zur Diagnostik ist vielleicht nicht alltäglich, jedoch tut sich auch da einiges – allen voran sind natürlich \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/50802.wss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">IBM mit Watson\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Auch in den Klassenräumen wird vermehrt auf digitale Medien gesetzt – hier kommt es natürlich wieder darauf an, \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/50842.wss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">welche Schule\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> man besucht. Was wohl noch nicht eingetroffen ist, ist die Vision, dass wir lokale Geschäfte mehr favorisieren werden als Onlineshops. IBM meinte hierzu, dass lokale Geschäfte von den Gewohnheiten der Kunden im Web lernen werden und das Gelernte so nutzen können, dass sie in ihren eigenen Geschäften das Erlebnis mithilfe von digitalen Medien verbessern. Es gibt zwar ein paar \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"https://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/50212.wss\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Spielereien\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> aber richtig durchgesetzt hat sich diese Vorhersage nicht. Stattdessen haben sich die lokalen Geschäfte auch ins Internet gewagt und begeistern hier mit ihren selbst geschneiderten Kleidern, frisch geernteten Karotten, und ausgewählten Kinderbüchern. Auch der persönliche, digitale Wächter ist noch nicht da, aber es wird daran gefeilt (ebenfalls bei \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"https://www.wired.com/2016/12/ibm-watson-for-cybersecurity-beta/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">IBM\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, aber auch Blockchain könnte hierfür eine Lösung sein). Letztendlich sind alle fünf Prophezeiungen noch nicht vollkommen eingetreten. Natürlich muss man auch beachten, dass nicht nur das was möglich ist ausschlaggebend ist, sondern auch das Interesse der Investoren, Politiker und letztendlich der Masse entscheidet, ob an Innovationen weiter getüftelt wird. Noch sind IBMs Vorhersagen nicht eingetreten  – vielleicht braucht es ja doch noch weitere fünf Jahre 😉 \u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Und was IBM für die nächsten fünf Jahre vorhersagt, könnt ihr \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"http://www.research.ibm.com/5-in-5/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">hier\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> nachlesen. \u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n\u003Ch2>peinlich, peinlich\u003C/h2>\n\u003Cp>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Und zum Schluss will ich noch auf einen grandiosen Fail aus unserer Region aufmerksam machen: Trendforscher Matthias Horx schreibt in seiner im Jahr 2000 veröffentlichten Studie „Die Zukunft des Internets“, dass sich das Internet als Massenmedium neben Radio und Fernsehen nicht durchsetzen werden könne. Es sei zu kompliziert und nur die gebildete Schicht wird sich auch weiterhin damit beschäftigen. Weiters meinte er auch, dass sich E-Commerce nicht durchsetzen wird. Diese – wohl noch öfters \u003C/span>\u003Ca href=\"https://derstandard.at/496477/Internet-wird-kein-Massenmedium\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\">zitierte\u003C/span>\u003C/a>\u003Cspan style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> – Prognose soll uns doch eine Lehre sein, vorsichtig mit unseren Zukunftsprophezeiungen zu sein 😉 \u003C/span>\u003C/p>\n        \u003C/div>\n    \u003C/div>\n\u003C/div>\n\n\n",{"__typename":160,"id":161,"excludeFromScreenreader":13,"mediaImage":162,"name":167,"path":170,"status":20},"MediaImage","1338",{"__typename":163,"url":164,"width":165,"height":166,"alt":81,"title":167,"size":168,"mime":169},"Image","http://liechtenecker-cms.liechtenecker-cms.svc.cluster.local/sites/default/files/wp-migration/wordpress-media-image/2018/01/prophezeiungen_bild_1920x500_2017-1.png",1920,500,"prophezeiungen_bild_1920x500_2017",6786,"image/png","/media/1338/edit",{"__typename":160,"id":172,"excludeFromScreenreader":13,"mediaImage":173,"name":177,"path":179,"status":20},"1337",{"__typename":163,"url":174,"width":175,"height":176,"alt":81,"title":177,"size":178,"mime":169},"http://liechtenecker-cms.liechtenecker-cms.svc.cluster.local/sites/default/files/wp-migration/wordpress-media-image/2018/01/prophezeiungen_bild_922x519_2017-1.png",922,519,"prophezeiungen_bild_922x519_2017",6588,"/media/1337/edit","\u003C!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v15.7 - https://yoast.com/wordpress/plugins/seo/ -->\n\u003Cmeta name=\"description\" content=\"Es ist nicht so leicht Zukunftsvorhersagen zu äußern. 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